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1 files changed, 11 insertions, 0 deletions
diff --git a/plans.org b/plans.org
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--- a/plans.org
+++ b/plans.org
@@ -67,3 +67,14 @@ Before the fix, tigers won ~97% of self-play games and the net only reached ~15-
*** Next candidates
- Pick exploratory moves among near-best ones (softmax over root scores) rather than uniformly
- Sheep are still the weaker side: report the match score for each side separately
+** DONE Balance tiger-win and sheep-win positions
+The unbalanced net (gen 100) had 7x the error on positions from sheep-win games (0.045) as on
+tiger-win ones (0.0065), so it leaned towards tiger wins, though not a constant prediction (that
+would give errors near 2). =balance_outcomes= trains on equal numbers of each.
+| vs =ClaudePlayer= (depth 3, 100 games) | gen 25 | gen 50 | gen 75 | gen 100 |
+|----------------------------------------+--------+--------+--------+---------|
+| Unbalanced | 25% | 50% | 54% | 62% |
+| Balanced | 22% | 19% | 51% | 62% |
+- The T and S errors are now similar (both ~0.02), but the strength reached is the same; balanced was slower
+ in the middle. Self-play is still ~95% tiger wins, from the random sheep moves.
+- "vs prev" stays at ~50% because after 4 random plies both sides play deterministically; it says little.